Tropical Storm Cristobal

Forecast Advisory 4



000
WTNT22 KNHC 192038
TCMAT2
HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 43.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......175NE 200SE 125SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 43.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.7N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 47.9N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 100SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 125SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 52.9N 34.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 58.0N 27.2W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 62.5N 20.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.8N 43.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB




000
WTNT23 KNHC 192048
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
2100 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 77.9W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 77.9W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 35.9N 73.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 38.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB