Hurricane Dolly

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 210844
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
0900 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 73.9W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 37.2N 72.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 42.5N 65.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 44.4N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 45.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 125SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH





000
WTNT24 KNHC 210852
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0900 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 87.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH