Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 1

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531
WTNT21 KNHC 152030
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FOR
THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH
COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM GONAIVES
NORTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 69.4W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 68.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.9N 71.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.4N 74.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 82.0W...OVER COAST OF FLORIDA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 69.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN