Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 2

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187
WTNT21 KNHC 160237
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

AT 11 PM AST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN
EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT AU PRINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ENTIRE NORTH COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST EAST OF SAN PEDRO DE
MACORIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 70.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 72.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 27.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 70.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA