Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 3

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246
WTNT21 KNHC 160850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE
NORTHERN COAST TO SAN PEDRO DE MACORIS ON THE SOUTHERN COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PROVINCES OF
CENTRAL CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 71.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.6N 76.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.8N 79.9W...NEAR SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 28.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

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FORECASTER KNABB