Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 4

---

562
WTNT21 KNHC 161435
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 73.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 75SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 73.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN