Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 5

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858
WTNT21 KNHC 162033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N 77.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N 81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 75.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

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FORECASTER BEVEN