Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 7

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717
WTNT21 KNHC 170858
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 77.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 77.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

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FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME