Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 9

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405
WTNT21 KNHC 172033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 80.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 80.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.3N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 82.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 37.0N 82.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN