Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 11

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735
WTNT21 KNHC 180850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.1N 82.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 82.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.1N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 33.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN