Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 15

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114
WTNT21 KNHC 190852
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ELSEWHERE ARE DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 81.7W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 81.7W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 81.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.3N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.3N 80.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.0N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 81.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN