Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 16

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029
WTNT21 KNHC 191444
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...FLORIDA KEYS SOUTHWEST OF OCEAN REEF...AND
FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 81.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 81.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 81.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 81.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

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FORECASTER AVILA