Tropical Storm Fay

Forecast Advisory 18

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530
WTNT21 KNHC 200240
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 80.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 80.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME