Hurricane Gustav

Forecast Advisory 5

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677
WTNT22 KNHC 260848
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. ALSO THE
GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 71.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 72.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 74.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.2N 75.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.4N 76.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 79.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA