Hurricane Gustav

Forecast Advisory 14

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252
WTNT22 KNHC 281111
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1130 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/1130Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 75.6W AT 28/1130Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 75.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA