Hurricane Ike

Forecast Advisory 48

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 130235
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 75NW.
50 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 270SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART