Hurricane Omar

Forecast Advisory 12

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303
WTNT25 KNHC 160848
TCMAT5
HURRICANE OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 63.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 63.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.7N 61.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 25SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 37.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 42.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA