Hurricane Paloma

Forecast Advisory 4

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939
WTNT22 KNHC 061434
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1500 UTC THU NOV 06 2008

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS. THIS WATCH COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 82.3W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 82.3W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 82.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 82.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 82.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 82.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 85SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 82.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH