Hurricane Paloma

Forecast Advisory 14

---

000
WTNT22 KNHC 082045
TCMAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
2100 UTC SAT NOV 08 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. THIS
WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

AT 4 PM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...ACKLINS
ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.8N 76.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.3N 76.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N 76.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.5N 76.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE