Hurricane Paloma

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 090245
TCMAT2
HURRICANE PALOMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
0300 UTC SUN NOV 09 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA AND HOLGUIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...SAN
SALVADOR...ACKLINS ISLAND...CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 77.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 77.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 77.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.4N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N 76.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.3N 75.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.6N 75.8W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART