Tropical Depression Sixteen

Forecast Advisory 4

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921
WTNT21 KNHC 150839
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
0900 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.2W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.2W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 87.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 91.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH





994
WTNT25 KNHC 150840
TCMAT5
HURRICANE OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC WED OCT 15 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 67.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.8N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.8N 60.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 75SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 35.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 67.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH