Tropical Storm Ana

Forecast Advisory 12

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004
WTNT22 KNHC 150425
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0430 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 45.8W AT 15/0430Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 45.8W AT 15/0430Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.7N 47.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 45.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN