Tropical Storm Ana

Forecast Advisory 15

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321
WTNT22 KNHC 152032
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.7N 52.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 56.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.1N 59.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





666
WTNT23 KNHC 152033
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 34.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 11.2N 37.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 35.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA