Tropical Storm Ana

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 160246
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST.KITTS...NEVIS AND ANGUILLA. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 51.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.5N 78.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 25.0N 83.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





000
WTNT23 KNHC 160247
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 36.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 36.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 35.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.2N 38.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.8N 44.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 36.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA