Hurricane Bill

Forecast Advisory 22

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783
WTNT23 KNHC 202035
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2009

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT.......225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..440NE 320SE 350SW 375NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 65.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.3N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 105SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 34.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 49.0N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 53.5N 24.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA