Tropical Storm Danny

Forecast Advisory 11

---

041
WTNT25 KNHC 290234
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...
WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 74.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 74.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.5N 70.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 44.0N 64.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 47.3N 58.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 51.5N 45.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 330SE 180SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 53.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 56.0N 14.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 74.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN