Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 072033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 24.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.6N 26.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.9N 30.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.1N 32.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 24.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN