Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 3



000
WTNT22 KNHC 080840
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 26.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.1N 29.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 30.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.1N 33.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 27.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH