Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 100236
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 33.7W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 33.7W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 33.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 34.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.1N 34.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.4N 34.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 33.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG