Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 100831
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 34.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 34.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 35.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 34.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.2N 34.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.5N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 39.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE