Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 101434
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 35.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 35.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 34.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 35.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.0N 35.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.2N 35.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.6N 34.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA