Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 111433
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 35.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 35.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 18.1N 34.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.2N 34.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 45SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.5N 34.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 35.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 43.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 49.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 35.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA