Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 120845
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 33.6W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 33.6W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 33.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 33.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.5N 35.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.5N 37.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 42.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 48.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N 53.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE