Hurricane Ida

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 051444
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2009

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 83.7W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 83.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.6N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.3N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.0N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 84.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.4N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE