Hurricane Ida

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 070834
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009

AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 84.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 84.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 87.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 84.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

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FORECASTER BRENNAN