Hurricane Ida

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 072048
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY AND A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THIS AREA LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 84.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 85.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...175NE 90SE 45SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.5N 87.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 45SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.5N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

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FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI