Hurricane Alex

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 252158
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN