Hurricane Alex

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 261445
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.1W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.1W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.7N 87.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.5N 91.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 24.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA