Hurricane Alex

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 290839
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0900 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 40SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 91.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 100SE 45SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 95.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 97.4W...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 91.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART