Hurricane Danielle

Forecast Advisory 26



000
WTNT22 KNHC 272030
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 30SE 15SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




000
WTNT21 KNHC 272042
TCMAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM EDT...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 60.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 250SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 60.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 60.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.6N 61.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 30.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 32.8N 59.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.1N 56.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 38.4N 49.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 95SE 75SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 41.8N 39.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 50.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART