Hurricane Earl

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 290300
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.4W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 55.4W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 54.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 20SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 55.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN