Hurricane Earl

Forecast Advisory 41

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 041448
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO PORT
LHEBERT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FOR NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT LHEBERT TO POINT TUPPER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE FUNDY NATIONAL PARK EASTWARD TO FORT
LAWRENCE...AND FROM SHEDIAC TO TIDNISH
* THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* POINT ESCUMINAC TO SHEDIAC NEW BRUNSWICK

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 64.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 31 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 470SE 470SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 64.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 48.0N 60.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 25NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 52.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 300SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 55.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 210SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 57.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA