Hurricane Julia

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 130831
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 55SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 90SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.9N 50.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 105SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 51.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.3N 53.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.4N 54.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 165SE 135SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 57.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 135SW 165NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 48.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





000
WTNT22 KNHC 130832
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 24.6W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 24.6W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 24.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 26.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 28.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 30.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 31.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 36.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 25.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 24.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH