Hurricane Julia

Forecast Advisory 8



000
WTNT21 KNHC 140833
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 51.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 240SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 51.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 52.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 135NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 54.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
34 KT...195NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 55.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 90NW.
34 KT...195NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.7N 57.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 95NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.4N 60.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 140SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 31.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




000
WTNT22 KNHC 140836
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0900 UTC TUE SEP 14 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 29.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 29.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 28.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 30.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.1N 31.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 75SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.7N 33.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 36.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 29.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI