Hurricane Julia

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 150531
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0530 UTC WED SEP 15 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 31.3W AT 15/0530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 31.3W AT 15/0530Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 32.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.4N 34.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 75SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 37.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.4N 40.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 25.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 31.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH