Hurricane Julia
Forecast Advisory 17
000
WTNT22 KNHC 160840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 36.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 35.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 38.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N 42.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.4N 45.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 85SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.3N 47.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...135NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 36.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
000
WTNT21 KNHC 160844
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 56.8W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT.......240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 360SE 330SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 56.8W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 56.5W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.1N 57.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 59.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.2N 61.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.7N 62.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 200SW 225NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 37.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 56.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT23 KNHC 160854
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM BARRA
DE NAUTLA SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 91.6W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 15NE 15SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 91.6W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.2W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 93.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.7N 94.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.0N 96.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 97.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 91.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
