Hurricane Julia

Forecast Advisory 33



000
WTNT21 KNHC 200841
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO JONES HARBOUR.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 64.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 275SE 260SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 600SE 800SW 530NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 64.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N 62.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 130SW 120NW.
50 KT...160NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...350NE 325SE 300SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 110SE 150SW 150NW.
50 KT...150NE 240SE 220SW 220NW.
34 KT...425NE 400SE 400SW 425NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N 50.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT... 0NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
34 KT...540NE 450SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 47.7N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...180NE 300SE 360SW 270NW.
34 KT...660NE 480SE 480SW 720NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 55.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 240SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 420SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 61.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN




000
WTNT22 KNHC 200841
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 47.9W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......125NE 175SE 100SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 250SE 250SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 47.9W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.1N 46.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 75SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 37.6N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.6N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN




000
WTNT21 KNHC 200845
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA IN SUMMARY SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO JONES HARBOUR.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD
TO JONES HARBOUR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 64.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 275SE 260SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 600SE 800SW 530NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 64.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N 62.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 70SE 130SW 120NW.
50 KT...160NE 200SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...350NE 325SE 300SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 40.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 110SE 150SW 150NW.
50 KT...150NE 240SE 220SW 220NW.
34 KT...425NE 400SE 400SW 425NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N 50.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 180SW 150NW.
50 KT... 0NE 300SE 240SW 240NW.
34 KT...540NE 450SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 47.7N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...180NE 300SE 360SW 270NW.
34 KT...660NE 480SE 480SW 720NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 55.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 240SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 270SE 420SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 61.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.2N 64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN