Hurricane Karl

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 161224
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
1230 UTC THU SEP 16 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 16/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 40SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.2W AT 16/1230Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.1N 93.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.5N 94.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W...INLAND POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 92.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN