Hurricane Paula
Forecast Advisory 2
000
WTNT23 KNHC 120243
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN
MEXICO WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.4W
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.9N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.4N 86.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.4N 86.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 84.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
