Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 6

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 122043
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.0W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.0W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.3N 86.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

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FORECASTER AVILA